Price Analysis: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple – July,16
We’re keeping the same timeframe as the one used in last week’s commentary but the charts used today are zoomed-out. Our primary points of interest are going to be the weekly’s open and close.
▪️ $11,500: this level marks the weekly’s open. Acting as resistance in the 1st place, it only took 8 hours for BTC to break above it, move that led to a 14% increase in price. Unfortunately, Bitcoin failed to maintain itself in the 13k area, a weakness that gave bears the opportunity to push price back to where it came from. Once it got here, we can see that it spent 70 hours to consolidate around the red level, transforming it into resistance before going lower.
▪️ $10,200: on the other side of the chart we have the weekly close. After $11,200 became resistance (point of interest indicated by a black arrow), BTC went 1,000 points lower, testing the 10k round number again. The buyers had a good reaction in the 1st place, marking an increase of another 1,000 points (to the upside this time). The 4h support labeled with a blue horizontal hasn’t been tested as resistance yet. If we do see an “S/R flip” around that level, BTC may get into trouble and a continuation to the downside seems probable.
Ethereum’s chart looks even worse. Expansions to the downside are more severe in % terms and consolidations do not have the same interest from buyers when it comes to moving the price up. Key levels as follows:
▪️ $307: just compare the price action above the weekly’s open between BTC and ETH; BTC broke thousands of points to the upside while ETH barely made a 4% move upwards. It took 60 hours of consolidation around this level before the price went down to the daily support, at $270. Another consolidation of 70+ hours, another break to the downside after its completion.
▪️ $225: the last expansion was the ugliest of them all; considering its wick, ETH marked a decrease of 18% in just one hour. At the time of writing this commentary, the price looks like its forming a round top (illustrated with a blue curved line), giving the sellers another opportunity in the near future. As long as ETH keeps staying below $270, the market is bearish.
For the last market, we’ve decided to choose a bigger timeframe and watch only levels of big interest. The 1st one of these is:
▪️ $0,28: this is the “$6000 level” for Ripple. Good old support that keeps getting tested again& again. This is not a bullish behavior for the price. It looks pretty clear that the next touch of the .28 level won’t hold, more so if it comes with a close below it.
▪️ $0,226: is not a reliable level of support but it could provide a bounce. This is also the price XRP flew from to $3+, back in 2018.
▪️ $0.145: this is the real support if XRP goes into an extended bear market. A drop from the current levels would mark another 50% in bears favor. The confirmation is held in this weekly close. We’ll update and discuss the outcome.